Last year I made some bold predictions for 2021. Turns out I was four of six, almost five of six if not for my sad prediction that COVID-21 would happen, which caused any office comeback to stall. Yes, I am cashing in on my COVID prediction by way of a technicality and Omicron hitting in 2021. For my sixth, I have lost all hope in Edtech. My kids use 1,592 different applications from one teacher, it is mind-numbing.
So here we are, another full rotation around the sun and into 2022. I didn’t think 2020 would ever be bested as the worst, but I’m not sure 2021 was much better and when I read a meme that “2022 is just 2020 too”, I cried a little on the inside.
The one thing I have to be thankful for is that I support the industry I absolutely love, ecommerce. I have been in ecommerce since 1999, which is fascinating and scary at the same time. Our industry has weathered the pandemic uncertainty and turmoil the best of any industry out there, and while it might be luck that we are in this industry at this time, that doesn’t mean automatic success.
Many eCommerce companies had serious issues in 2021, as I personally saw the effects of supply chain issues take down a company I started and sold. When you are in a seasonal category and you run out of inventory during the season you miss out on sales, that’s not the issue, the issue is that those sales fuel the off-season buying. So miss the season, miss the next buying, have nothing for the next season, poof.
So, onward to 2022 and my six bold predictions.
Prediction 1. Tom Brady will win yet another Superbowl
I am still a Brady fanboy. Note I didn’t say the Bucs would win it, I think he could win it with any team (except Detroit).
Prediction 2. Retailers that had a banner 2021 will absolutely kill it in 2022
Those that survive the most painful times are set up to be the most profitable. 2020 had its challenges followed by the supply chain 2021 debacle, if you made it to this side then, when things return to ‘normal’, profitability will soar. That is 2022.
Prediction 3. Service levels at service businesses will remain terrible
Unfortunately the service we now encounter and accept when eating out or anything that requires lower wage labor will remain with us. Since we accepted lower service levels businesses are not incented to add them back, even if they can. Profits prevail, sadly.
Prediction 4. The last 21 full-line Sears stores will finally close
Maybe not too bold, but for those that grew up in the 80’s, this will be closure for us.
Prediction 5. Tiger Woods wins another golf tournament
I am tempted to say The Masters, but I will leave it at just a tournament. Next year I will predict that it is revealed that he and Tom Brady are really just robots.
Prediction 6. Offices will make a comeback
They won’t look the same and will be more hybrid but humans need interactions. Okay, this is a repeat of last year’s failed prediction, but this is my blog, my rules, repeats allowed.